Living Longer
People in the United States are living longer than ever .In 1900 one could expect to live to age 47. By the year 2000, that average life expectancy had increased to 77. In addition, if a person reaches his or her 65th birthday today, s/he can expect to live another 18 years. The oldest Baby Boomers, (those born between 1946 and 1964) are now turning 60. Because they make up about one fourth of the entire U.S. population1, "during the next 3-4 decades, we can expect a very dramatic increase both in the number of elderly persons and in the proportion of elderly persons in the population."2 In Arizona, this effect will be magnified because so many people choose to retire here. Between the years 2000 and 2020, “the number of Arizonans over age 85 will increase by 102%.”3
Cultural and Geographic Differences
The four largest minority groups in Arizona are Hispanics, American Indians, Blacks and Asians, respectively. All these groups will have a large increase in the percentage of individuals over 65. According to Governor Napolitano’s report, Aging 2020: Arizona’s Plan for an Aging Population, “Between 1995 and 2025, the growth of Hispanic persons ages 65-84 years (59%) will far outpace the growth of White non-Hispanics this age (16%).” These numbers are important not only as statistics, but because cultures can vary dramatically in their traditions of caring for their frail elderly. Another important difference is urban vs. rural. Although “less than 25% of Arizona’s seniors live in rural areas…some of Arizona’s most rural counties [for example Yavapai and La Paz Counties] are also the ‘oldest’ and getting older.”4 Social and government programs must incorporate cultural and geographic differences as we plan for the future.
Illnesses in the Elderly
Many social, economic, political, and perhaps above all, medical challenges will accompany this expected shift in the population. Inroads have been made into the three leading causes of death among the elderly-- heart disease, cancer and stroke. At he same time, however, the incidence of the next most common group of illnesses causing mortality is increasing. These are: “lung disease, pneumonia, influenza, diabetes, accidental injuries, Alzheimer’s disease, kidney disease and blood infections.”5 Furthermore, 8 out of 10 of all individuals aged 70 and older have one or more, of the following chronic conditions: arthritis, high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease, stroke and cancer. Some illnesses of the elderly like Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s Disease and Stroke involve extensive care giving networks.
Will We Have Enough Doctors?
Adding to the complexity of caring for large numbers of people with many chronic conditions is the predicted national physician shortage. This shortage is expected to hit Arizona especially hard. “Arizona’s high projected population growth combined with the limited number of in-state medical education and training opportunities will make Arizona increasingly reliant on recruiting physicians from other states at a time of projected national shortages.”6
Unique Opportunities
Not all the changes that accompany the “graying of America” involve increased consumption of social resources by seniors. For example, more and more grandparents are taking on the responsibility of raising their grandchildren. “A phenomenon across the country, in Arizona in 2000 there were 96,062 children living in Grandparent Headed Households—a 73.8% increase since 1990. This trend is expected to continue and increase in future years.”7
There may be unique challenges ahead as baby boomers move into their senior years. There are also unique opportunities for increased health, wellbeing and wisdom for all.
